In the previous blog we have demonstrated using only official data and reports, that current Covid vaccines are not safe. In this blog we will look at the arguments put forward by politicians and public health authorities, that vaccines are effective, prevent transmissions and are the only way to generate herd immunity.
Originally people were told, that vaccines prevent Covid. When the number of fully vaccinated individuals testing positive for Covid increased, the narrative was changed. We are now being told, that there are just a few so-called breakthrough cases, a euphemism for vaccine failure, and that the vaccines work exceptionally well in preventing severe illness and death.
In our previous blog on vaccine safety, we have introduced the latest Pfizer paper contending, that its vaccine is “highly efficacious in preventing Covid-19”.
The study set-up is questionable. A confirmed case of Covid only required a positive PCR test and one or more of the following symptoms: sore throat, cough, fever, diarrhea, vomiting, shortness of breath, chills, muscle pain and/or loss of taste or smell. We have shown before, that the PCR test is highly unreliable, and the listed symptoms can come from any other disease.
Irrespectively, Pfizer claims Vaccine Efficacy (VE) of 91% from 7 days after dose 2 through up to 6 months of follow-up. Many people believe, that VE of 91% means, that 91% of those vaccinated can’t get the virus. Some even suppose, that 91% of the unvaccinated will get sick. Both assumptions are incorrect.
VE does not measure the absolute effectiveness of a vaccine. Instead, it shows relative effectiveness by comparing disease rates between the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. A simple calculation formula is: 1 – (disease cases per 1,000 among the vaccinated / disease cases per 1,000 among the unvaccinated). Based on this formula it is possible, that two studies result in an identical VE, even though in the first study only 1% of the unvaccinated got sick, while in the second study 95% contracted the disease.
46,077 individuals participated in the Pfizer study, of which only 1,165 or 2.5% were diagnosed with Covid. 99% of the vaccinated and 96% of the unvaccinated did not test positive. Perhaps they were never exposed to the virus, in which case the result could be very different in future periods. Or they had natural immunity. In this case, many individuals were unnecessarily vaccinated (we will cover the topic of natural immunity in our next blog). That health authorities are declaring vaccines to be 91% effective, based on a study where 97.5% of participants did not even get sick, is in our opinion misleading.
Irrespective of whether one believes in VE of 91%, the data provided by Pfizer reveals, that vaccine efficacy wanes. While VE is as high as 96.2% shortly after the second dose, it drops to only 83.7% after 4 months.
Waning efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine is also found in two other studies. Scientists from Israel analyzed data of MHS, Israel’s second largest Health Organization, which covers 25% of the population. They found, that with regard to the Pfizer vaccine, the risk of a breakthrough infections was significantly higher for early vaccinees compared to those vaccinated later. A study study of 225 individuals in Japan concluded, that Pfizer’s efficacy is “likely diminished to under detection limit 6-7 months post-1st shot”.
Variants increase the risk of infection for the fully vaccinated. A preview paper investigating almost 26,000 vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals tested at the Mayo Clinic health system in the USA, found, that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines were both quite effective when the Alpha variant prevailed. However, when the prevalence of the Delta variant increased to 70%, VE of Moderna reduced to 76% and that of Pfizer to just 42%.
A study of 19,000 healthcare workers in San Diego, who had received either the Pfizer or the Moderna vaccine, showed, that vaccine efficacy fell from 90% in March to 66% in July. The dramatic change in vaccine efficacy was attributed to waning immunity and the emergence of the Delta variant.
Several reports prepared by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the USA provide more details regarding the increasing number of breakthrough cases and waning vaccine efficacy (see here, here and here).
Apart from waning efficacy and insufficient protection from variants, there is also the issue of increased infection risk following the first dose. Data from a Danish Cohort study covering 39,000 Long-term Care Facility (LTCF) residents and 331,000 Health Care Workers (HCW) revealed, that in the first 14 days after the first dose, vaccine effectiveness was negative.
A low lymphocyte count is associated with a symptomatic infection and possibly a more severe disease outcome. Irrespective of whether this explanation is confirmed, it is conspicuous, that in many countries, infections have soared following the start of mass vaccinations and Covid deaths have followed.
To get a good understanding of the extent of breakthrough cases is difficult, as the vaccinated are tested much less than the unvaccinated. Fortunately, there is the Phuket Sandbox scheme, which was launched on 1 July 2021 to attract foreign tourists back to the island. In order to use the Sandbox scheme, tourists were required to be fully vaccinated and have a negative Covid PCR-test before departure. Upon arrival in Phuket, they were immediately tested and then again on days 6 and 12 of their stay.
According to the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), in the first two months of the Sandbox scheme, Phuket welcomed 26,400 Sandbox visitors, of which 83 tested positive. After deducting 15 minors, who were probably not vaccinated, we arrive at 68 fully vaccinated Covid cases. This represented 0.26% of all Sandbox arrivals.
Applying the 0.26% to the USA, and adjusting for the fact, that Sandbox tests were only carried out in a short two-week period, it is possible that 32,800 breakthrough cases per day could be occurring among the 178 million fully vaccinated Americans. As most of them might have no or only minor symptoms, they would probably not be recognized as Covid cases.
With regard to Phuket, it is interesting to note, that Covid cases occurred not just among tourists. According to data from the Phuket health department, locals contributed even more. Though 92% of adults had a first vaccine dose and 75% a second dose, the island recorded a peak of 257 local cases on 31 August. This does not look like a lot, but a similar infection rate in the USA would result in over 150,000 new cases per day.
Other regions with a high vaccination rate have experienced similar surges in Covid cases. Gibraltar, a small country located at the Southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, was declared Covid free in April, after 85% of the eligible population had been vaccinated. Nevertheless, a new wave occurred in July/August peaking at 35 new cases per day and affecting about 2.6% of the population over a two-month period. To put this into perspective, a similar surge in the USA would peak at 360,000 new daily cases and affect 8.7 million citizens within two months.
If vaccines were fully effective, such a surge should never have happened with over 85% of the adult population being fully vaccinated. In addition, effective vaccines would have only allowed infections among the unvaccinated. However, 68% of those who tested positive were vaccinated.
Another country with a high vaccination rate, that has experienced a surge in Covid cases, is Iceland, an island nation with a population of 369,000 people located in the North Atlantic. When the latest wave started in July 2021, 70% of the population had already been fully vaccinated. Nonetheless, daily cases peaked well above previous tops. 60% of positive cases were among the fully vaccinated.
Israel, which has been a vaccine pioneer relying exclusively on the Pfizer vaccine, has also experienced a new wave of Covid cases since June 2021, when 59% of the population were fully vaccinated. The number of new cases per million people surpassed previous tops, when the vaccination rate was zero or very low. In late July the Israeli Health Ministry had to admit, that the effectiveness the Pfizer vaccine in preventing infection had dropped to 39%.
You would assume, that vaccines at least reduce the risk of infection. However, as data from England reveals, this might not necessarily be the case. According to the ‘Covid-19 Vaccine Surveillance Report’ of Public Health England (PHE) for the weeks 33-36, vaccine effectiveness was negative in the age group 40-79. Per 100,000 people, the vaccinated had more Covid cases than the unvaccinated. This is particularly important for those aged 60-79, who have a much higher mortality risk from Covid than younger people.
If vaccines don’t prevent infection, they should at least protect from severe illness and hospitalization. This is what authorities around the world are claiming today. A closer look at the data from England in the aforementioned report reveals, that 28% more fully vaccinated patients were in hospital than unvaccinated individuals. Vaccine effectiveness was comparatively high at over 80% for young people and those of working age, but dropped to 72% for the 70-79 years of age and only 65% for the 80 years and older. Those most in need are provided the lowest protection.
Data from Israel also attests to limited vaccine protection from hospitalization. According to the Covid data dashboard of the Israeli government, the fully vaccinated accounted for 51% of severely sick Covid patients in the period 22.06. – 17.09.21.
At the end of July, Israel was the first country to introduce so-called booster shots to the fully vaccinated, and by mid-September over 70% of those aged over 60 and even 17% of those aged 16-19 had received a third dose. From the graph above it appears, that the booster shot provided some benefit. However, it was unable to stop severe illness, as 7% of the severely sick had previously received a booster shot.
The last argument for the effectiveness of vaccines is, that they prevent death. Unfortunately, this is also not true. In Israel, inoculation proved incapable of preventing the deaths of 610 Israeli citizens, including 117 people with a booster shot. The unvaccinated suffered 445 deaths, 42% of the total.
In England, the number of fully vaccinated Covid deaths was 188% higher than unvaccinated deaths. Though protection for the 30-79 years of age was quite high, vaccine effectiveness of only 69% for the 80 years and over showed again, that protection for those most at risk was insufficient.
Data from many other countries around the world also shows, that breakthrough cases can lead to hospitalization and death. For instance, Germany’s Robert Koch Institute (RKI) lists 2,920 hospitalizations and 653 deaths in the 30 September Weekly Situation Report.
The U.S. CDC acknowledged 16,889 non-fatal breakthrough hospitalizations and 5,226 breakthrough deaths by 27 September. However, they emphasized that 18% of hospitalizations and 17% of deaths did not have symptoms or were not Covid related. Such information is usually omitted, when Covid cases among the unvaccinated are reported.
Official reports from the USA, England, Germany and Israel confirm, that at least 7,700 vaccinated patients have died from Covid (the asymptomatic and not-Covid-related cases in the USA are not included, and the data from England only covers a period of 4 weeks). In the next blog we will show, that the actual number is certainly higher, as governments use several tricks to keep breakthrough cases (= vaccine failures) at an artificially low level.
In the good old days, a vaccine was only considered to be effective, if it prevented the disease. This is obviously not the case with the current Covid vaccines, as they might potentially increase the infection risk. Even if we lower the standard and expect only protection from severe illness and death, current Covid vaccines fail. To call them effective contradicts the official data.
At best it can be claimed, that vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalization and death. However, the extend and duration of this risk reduction is disputed, as scientific studies and government data from around the world show very different levels of protection.
If you think that insufficient vaccine protection is bad news, wait until you have learned about other potential dangers, which are not mentioned by health authorities or the main media.
Many respected scientists are concerned about Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE). If ADE occurs, antibodies generated by the vaccine don’t protect, but rather cause a more severe illness and even death. It might take months or years to detect ADE, as the highest risk occurs during the waning phase of a vaccine-induced immune response. New variants also pose a threat. A recent paper concludes, that “ADE may be a concern for people receiving vaccines based on the original Wuhan strain spike sequence”.
If you want to learn more about the potential risks of ADE, watch the linked video from Dr. Robert Malone, who was a main contributor to the development of mRNA vaccines, or listen to Dr. Dolores Cahill, Professor at the School of Medicine at University College Dublin.
Another potential danger is, that vaccines create variants. Dr. Luc Montagnier, 2008 Nobel Prize recipient and Professor at Shanghai Jio Tong University, which is ranked among the Top 100 universities in the world, warns about mass vaccinations: “It is an unacceptable mistake ….. because it is the vaccination that is creating the variants …. the new variants are a production and result of vaccination …. You see it in each country, the curve of vaccination is followed by a curve of deaths”. In addition, he contends that vaccinating people during a pandemic is “unthinkable”.
Dr. Bryam Bridle, Associate Professor at the University of Guelph in Canada, takes a similar view. He states: ”Our vaccines are focused on a single protein of the virus, so the virus only has to alter one protein, and the vaccines don’t come close to conferring sterilizing immunity ….these vaccines and the vast majority of people are applying a non-lethal pressure narrowly focused on one protein, and of course the vaccine roll-out is occurring over a long period of time, that’s the recipe for driving the variants.”
Dr. Geert Vanden Bossche, an industry veteran who has among others worked for the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), also envisions high risks from continued mass vaccinations: “Mass vaccination in the middle of a pandemic is prone to promoting selection and adaptation of immune escape variants … thereby diminishing protection in vaccinees and threatening the unvaccinated. This already explains why the WHO’s mass vaccination program is not only unable to generate herd immunity (HI) but even leads to substantial erosion of the population’s immune protective capacity …. every further increase in vaccine coverage rates will further contribute to forcing the virus into resistance …., will inevitably result in an additional toll taken on human health and human lives.”
And finally, Dr. Peter McCullough, Professor at TCU and UNTHSC School of Medicine until he was sacked for not towing the official Covid line, declares: “If we keep this up with the injections, there is going to be one variant after another … We’re playing with fire here with this mass vaccination … I’m going to tell you, I think this Delta outbreak that we have right now is the product of mass vaccination … If we didn’t have the jab, we would have been better off. We had already treated this down to a very acceptable level.”
Vaccines might not only create new variants, they might also become completely ineffective against them. A recent scientific paper concluded, that the Delta variant is poised to acquire complete resistance to vaccines based on the original virus strain and that vaccines might then even enhance infectivity.
A lot of detailed information about the potential dangers of mass vaccinations is provided in a video session with industry veterans Dr. Vanden Bossche and Dr. Malone. If they are right, elimination of the unvaccinated group will severely worsen the pandemic.
We don’t know whether the above findings are true, but considering the empirical evidence from many countries around the world, we need to take these views very seriously. As with vaccine safety, an immediate and thorough scientific discourse involving a diverse group of leading scientists from around the world is urgently needed. Nothing like this is happening. On the contrary, the above-mentioned scientists are ignored by the ‘ruling’ scientific community, ridiculed by self-appointed ‘fact checkers’, who often have no background in science, and banned from mainstream media. We can only hope, that the above statements will be proven wrong, but won’t bet on it.
In summary, claiming that vaccines are ‘effective’ or even ‘highly effective’ contravenes the evidence. Health authorities openly admit in their reports, that breakthroughs occur regularly, and that the fully vaccinated can end up in hospital and die. Data from Public Health England even suggest, that vaccine effectiveness with regard to infection might be negative.
To reassure the public, many journalists and ‘fact checkers’ have pointed out, that the occurrence of a lot of breakthrough cases was to be expected, as the vast majority of the population is by now fully vaccinated. This argument is only valid, if vaccines don’t protect as they should. Authorities that embrace this argument concede, that Covid vaccines are ‘leaky’. They neither prevent infection, nor hospitalization, nor death.
Vaccines seem to offer at least some protection against hospitalization and death, but it is contested, to what extend and for how long. If vaccines increase the likelihood of infection shortly after dose 1, if Antibody Dependent Enhancement (ADE) exists, or if vaccines contribute to the creation of new variants, that are more infectious and/or fully resistant to them, their effectiveness might be zero or even negative.
Even though vaccines are leaky, this does not mean that all people should reject them. It all comes down to a personal risk-benefit analysis. If you are severely sick and have a 0% chance to survive the next 6 months, taking a medicine, that might kill you with a 5% probability, but heal you with a 50% probability, makes perfect sense. The same applies to Covid vaccines. Individuals should consult a qualified doctor, who has not been corrupted by the pharmaceutical industry, to discuss their personal vaccine risk-benefit-profile.
Many politicians contend, that only the unvaccinated can transmit the virus and that we are currently facing a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. Is this claim supported by scientific research and empirical data?
A CDC analysis of a Covid outbreak in Barnstable County, Massachusetts, showed, that the median Ct value of the 127 fully vaccinated people (22.77) was similar to that of the 84 unvaccinated, partially vaccinated and unknown (22.54). As the Ct value is inversely proportional to a patient’s viral load, both groups were similarly infectious. Unfortunately, the CDC did not provide the Ct value for the unvaccinated alone, but mixed them with the partially vaccinated and the unknown. Why? Did the unvaccinated have a higher Ct value (= less infectivity) than the fully vaccinated group?
No significant difference in Ct values between the unvaccinated and the vaccinated was also confirmed by a CDC-supported study from Wisconsin, and a paper based on data from the Johns Hopkins Medical System.
That infections can occur among the fully vaccinated was confirmed by research from Vietnam, which analyzed 69 Delta breakthrough cases among healthcare workers. It concluded: “Breakthrough Delta variant infections are associated with high viral loads, prolonged PCR positivity, and low levels of vaccine-induced neutralizing antibodies, explaining the transmission between the vaccinated people”.
An analysis of 161 breakthrough cases among Dutch health care workers confirm, that transmission between the fully vaccinated is possible. Infectious virus was found in 69% of breakthrough infections and 22% even had a Ct value ≤20, indicating high infectiousness.
A paper about a Covid outbreak in Meir Medical Center in Israel, where 96.2% of exposed individuals were vaccinated, concluded that “all transmissions between patients and staff occurred between masked and vaccinated individuals.” Interestingly, the fully vaccinated patient, who started the outbreak resulting in 42 Covid positive cases, had an extremely low Ct value of 13.6, which might qualify him as a super spreader and potentially indicate ADE. Median Ct value among the infected was quite low at 19.9, with no statistically significant difference between the symptomatic and the asymptomatic individuals.
By now there is solid evidence, that the vaccinated can have high virus loads and transmit the virus. The evidence is so strong, that even the Director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) and America’s most well-known vaccine pusher, Dr. Fauci, had to admit: “Now that we have the Delta variant, that has changed the entire landscape. Because when you look at the level of virus… of a vaccinated person, who gets a breakthrough infection with Delta, it is exactly the same as the level of virus in an unvaccinated person.”
Dr. Walensky, Director of the U.S. CDC, also had to concede in an interview: “Our vaccines are working exceptionally well. They continue to work well for Delta with regard to severe illness and death. The prevent death. But what they can’t do anymore is prevent transmission”.
If you think that the above is already bad enough for the vaccinated, the actual situation might be much worse. A recent study, which was funded by the U.S. CDC, analyzed 699 swab specimens collected in Wisconsin in July 2021. It found, that 68% of the fully vaccinated had a Ct value <25, compared to only 63% among the unvaccinated. Consequently, the share of potentially infectious people among the fully vaccinated was higher than among the unvaccinated.
Figure 1c of the paper shows, that for symptomatic patients, the mean Ct value was similar for the fully vaccinated and the unvaccinated. However, for asymptomatic cases, the mean Ct value was lower for the fully vaccinated, suggesting a higher virus load. Among the asymptomatic cases with a Ct value <25, only 29% of the unvaccinated were infectious, compared to 82% of the fully vaccinated.
The above findings support the hypothesis, that the vaccinated contribute disproportionately to the spread of the virus in the population. As vaccines suppress symptoms, asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals, who are fully vaccinated but highly infectious, go to work and meet friends, while the unvaccinated with similar virus loads are staying in bed to cure their disease.
Reports about fully vaccinated super spreaders in the USA and Israel support this hypothesis. Data from many countries, where Covid cases soared following the start of mass vaccination, also points in this direction. If the hypothesis turned out to be correct, we would have a ‘pandemic of the vaccinated’, and not a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’ as many politicians claim.
In summary, data from Gibraltar, UK, Israel and other countries shows, that the vaccinated already represent the majority of new Covid cases. Scientific research and statements from health officials confirm, that individuals with vaccine breakthroughs are just as infectious as the unvaccinated. Asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic vaccinees might even be more infectious.
Based on these findings, vaccine passports giving special privileges to the fully vaccinated, lack scientific justification.
Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of the population (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of the disease even to those, who are not yet immune, unlikely. Proponents of mass vaccinations are claiming, that herd immunity from Covid can be achieved, but only through vaccination.
Traditionally the WHO had stated, that herd immunity can be attained “either through vaccination or immunity developed through previous infection”. Pushed by vaccine lobbyists, the WHO changed its position in November 2020 claiming, that herd immunity is a “concept used for vaccination, in which a population can be protected from a certain virus if a threshold of vaccination is reached.” Obviously natural immunity was not possible anymore.
Following outcries from around the world, the WHO changed the definition back to the old version, allowing both vaccination and previous infection to contribute to herd immunity. However, it added: “WHO supports achieving ‘herd immunity’ through vaccination, not by allowing a disease to spread through any segment of the population, as this would result in unnecessary cases and deaths.”
Is achieving herd immunity through vaccination realistic? Data from Gibraltar, Iceland, Israel and other countries shows, that high vaccination rates don’t prevent new Covid waves. There are even many nations, where cases rose in line with vaccination.
Recent research covering 68 countries and 2,947 counties in the USA found no discernable relationship between vaccination rate and new COVID-19 cases. With regard to countries it was found, that “the trend line suggests a marginally positive association such that countries with higher percentage of population fully vaccinated have higher COVID-19 cases per 1 million people.” As for the USA, the paper adds: “Of the top 5 counties that have the highest percentage of population fully vaccinated (99.9–84.3%), the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) identifies 4 of them as “High” Transmission counties.”
Such findings don’t surprise. As current Covid vaccines can neither prevent infection nor transmission, they are unable to create herd immunity.
Þórólfur Guðnason, Chief Epidemiologist of Iceland, had to concede this. According to him, there is now only one other way to achieve herd immunity, and that is to “to allow the virus to spread throughout the community.”
Mr. Guðnason is not alone with this conclusion. He was joined by Dr. Sir Andrew Pollard, Professor of Paediatric Infection and Immunity, Director of the Oxford Vaccine Group, Chair of the UK Department of Health and Social Care’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, Chair of the European Medicines Agency (EMA) scientific advisory group on vaccines, and Member of WHO’s Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE). Already in August, Dr. Pollard stated: “I think we are in a situation here with this current variant, where herd immunity is not a possibility, because it still infects vaccinated individuals. And I suspect what the virus will throw up next, is a variant which is perhaps even better in transmitting in vaccinated populations”.
In a parliamentary panel Dr. Pollard also warned, that herd immunity is a “mythical” concept and should not inform the design of vaccination programmes in the UK or across the globe.
Even the WHO has become more cautious about herd immunity. Dr. Kluge, its Europe chief, had still claimed in May, that “the pandemic will be over once we reach 70 percent minimum coverage in vaccination.” However, in a recent interview he admitted, that vaccines won’t end the pandemic due to new variants such as Delta. His updated view is, that “the aim of a vaccination is first and foremost to prevent more serious disease, and that’s mortality”.
Current Covid vaccines don’t prevent infection and transmission. They might even give rise to new variants, that are potentially immune to vaccines, and create new surges in Covid infections through asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic individuals, who are fully vaccinated. To believe, that current vaccines can achieve herd immunity is delusional. It is possible, though not likely, that this might change in the future, if non-leaky vaccines can be developed. For the time being, only natural immunity appears to be a valid option to achieve herd immunity. We will cover this topic in the next blog.
In the first blog of this triology, we have looked into vaccine safety. This blog covered efficacy, transmission and herd immunity. In the final blog we will look at several topics, that are completely ignored by vaccine advocates. We will show, that mass vaccinations and vaccine passports are not supported by science, but follow a political agenda completely unrelated to health.
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